A Blog Divided's First Bowl Projection Special

This post follows the meandering comments by contributors Jon (J) and Adam (A) as we select the winners of all 2008-2009 Bowls

Eaglebank Bowl: Navy and Wake Forest

A: This Wake team really reminds me of the Wake Forest I've known for so long in the early part of the decade: totally mediocre.

J: Yeah, in a totally mediocre conference.

A: Navy has the better offense. And, they've already beaten Wake once this year, 24-17 at Wake. It's apparently the first time in 63 years that Wake has played the same team twice in one year.

J: Of course, they don't really go to conference championship games...or bowls

A: Which would pretty much explain that stat. Navy wins again. That's my pick.

J: I have to give this one to Navy.

Selection: Navy

New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State and Fresno State

J: Colorado sate is 6-6 in the MWC; Fresno is 7-5 in the WAC.

A: Mountain West actually the better conference this year

J: Fresno is also only 4-4 in conference

A: Fresno has had a really down year for their program, but I still think they've got the talent, and I just can't trust a Colorado State team that lost 38-17 to Colorado.

J: interestingly, all of CSU's losses are to decent opponents except Colorado.

A: I disagree. I think their only quality win was Houston, who they had at home. Yeah, the record says enough about the Rams for me.

J: yep, gotta go with the bulldogs

A: I have a buddy who loves the Rams. Sorry, bud, Dogs Roll.

Selection: Fresno State

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis and South Florida

A: ....what the hell kind of name is that for a bowl anyway? I don't even know who MagicJack is or what they sell.

J: Hooray, corporate sponsorship. It's also almost a home game for USF; Tropicana field is like 15 miles from the Buccs stadium where USF plays.

A: Which, homefield advantage is nice, but I don't think USF even needs it.

J: Probably not.

A: USF is filled with talent.

J: They upset Kansas (in Florida) and beat the snot out of Syracuse. I actually was in Tampa when they played Pitt, and that was a hell of a close game.

A: only the Rutgers loss makes me nervous.

J: but they're playing Memhpis.

A: Memphis, however, lost to central Florida. Not a good loss, especially coming 2nd to last week of the year. USF should win this one by 13 at least.

J: Yeah, that's about right.

Selection: South Florida

Las Vegas Bowl: BYU and Arizona

J: I want Zona to win it, but they probably won't.

A: I'm sure you do, and we'll get to my partisan game in a minute. I dissed BYU all year - I dogged them when they were ranked highly, but they get a lucky brake getting the unlucky Cats.

J: yeah, nothing convincing in Zona's resume

A: wasn't lil' Stoops [formerly of OU, now head coach at Arizona] a Defensive coach?

J: Yes, and litlest stoops is his DC.

A: Their D just hasn't lived up to the billing. Zona is truly a middle of the pack Pac 10 team, which isn't a ringing endorsement.

J: total defense for Zona is 20^th, Scoring is 36^th. Better than I thought.

A: Better than I thought, too.

J: They're actually pretty good according to the numbers.

A: Still, BYU is the better team.

J: Zona's going to make it close, though.

A: They'll play it well, but BYU will pull a win by 7.

Selection: BYU

New Orleans Bowl: Troy and Southern Miss

A: here's my partisan shout out. Okie State pride - our old Offensive Coordinator is their head coach now. Congrats, Larry F on getting your boys back to a bowl.

J: hope his quarterback likes the taste of dirt.

A: Troy is scary good on defense.

J: Troy is 4th nationally in sacks and 3rd in TFLs. also 3rd in sacks allowed. We're talking scary good lines.

A: They are fast and strong and way too competitive to play in their conference [Sunbelt].

J: We'll trade them Baylor. All Troy's losses are on the road, too

A: Let's see Troy's losses; Ohio State, Oklahoma State, LSU, and La-Monroe by 1 lousy point. They murdered the rest of their conference. On the other hand, Southern Miss has played very well of late.

J: They put up 70 on UAB, but UAB sucks at defending the pass. And losing to Marshall is bad.

A: And Troy just scares me. I'll have to go with Troy in a hard fought battle. This game might be the best one of the 'little' bowls

J: it may be. Troy is way better than this one, though.

Selection: Troy

Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State and TCU

A: This is one hell of a matchup.

J: For damn sure.

A: BSU got screwed out of a BCS game, but they drew a great opponent.

J: I don't think they are as good as Utah, and only one non-BCS team will get in any given season.

A: you really think Utah is better than Boise?

J: I think so.

A: well, let's save the argument here for a later time.

J: TCU has one of the best looking defenses in the NCAA.

A: While that's true, they still let enough go in their pass D to be vulnerable to Boise's powerful air game. Let's flash back to the OU game - how did you guys win?

J: over the top and around the corner

A: And while BSU doesn't have the benefit of a Bradford under center, they still put up nearly 300 in the air every game.

J: I hear you, but look at the points TCU has allowed. They even held Utah's Meyer-inspired spread to only 13 points.

A: okay, okay, and D wins championships (and bowl games). you've won me over, I'll pick TCU grudgingly.

Selection: TCU

Hawai'i Bowl: Notre Dame and Hawai'i

A: how the hell did ND even make a bowl?

J: do we even need to discuss this one?

A: they lost to Syracuse! Bloody orange!

J: In South Bend. they only beat Michigan because the wingedy helmet boys couldn't hold on to the ball.

A: (that game or any other this year)

J: oh, and the Navy-Notre Dame game was a really good one. ND won that one on defense.

A: apparently their pass D is good.

J: i'm not sure how many of their opponents actually passed on them, though. USC for the first half, maybe BC, maybe SDSU.

A: They didn't need to pass, eh?

J: well, that too. Navy, Pitt and Purdue are ground teams, Washington couldn't find the endzone with a nuke.

A: It's terribly en vogue to slam Notre Dame... but I'm going to join the club. Hawai'i by 14.

J: 42? What?

A: nah. Maybe 34, but not 42.

Selection: Hawai'i

Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic

A: big ol' *shrug* here.

J: I know. FAU is a Schnellenberger team.

A: Tell ya what, I'm gonna pick it by QB. I know the kid at CMich has a good arm, so I'll go with the LeFevours.

J: sounds good. their only bad loss is to E mich.

A: Ah, “directional Michigan.”

Selection: Central Michigan

Meinike Car Care Bowl: West Virginia and North Carolina

A: the "Car Care" Bowl should also be a good one.

J: WVU has two losses in OT, to CU and Cinci.

A: UNC had a rough time in the ACC (who didn't?), but they've played the Big East well.

J: I'm not sold on UNC. They barely beat Duke.

A: And they got the sh@t kicked out of them by NCState, which is never a good sign.

J: They let a div 2 [ed note: I think he means FCS, kiddos] team score 27 on them to start out the season.

A: Honestly, I think the Heels have what it takes to win this game pretty handily. But it's Pat White's last game in college, and there is no way his team will let him down here.

J: it's gonna be close.

A: Game IS in Charlotte, though.

J: that may give UNC the edge.

A: nah, not enough. WVA by 10.

Selection: West Virginia

Champ Sports Bowl: Florida State and Wisconsin

A: Ooh, it's the "Let Down Bowl"

J: yeah, almost Big 10 champ vs. almost ACC champ.

A: neither title is worth as much as in the past. I am personally so shocked the Badgers fell apart like they did. They had everything at the start of the season.

J: Wisconsin lost to Michigan. i can't go with them

A: The only way this game goes the Badgers way is with a downpour of Floridian proportions. if Orlando is a mudbowl, they could out-muscle the Seminoles.

J: For sure. this should be an ugly, low-scoring affair. FSU will pull it out.

A: give ol' Bobby another trophy, boys. hey, how much longer do you think Bobby's got in him?

J: maybe one or two more seasons. next time he beats Florida, he's gone.

A: That might be 5 years at the this rate.

J: yeah, maybe. Either way, they get this one.

Selection: Florida State

Emerald Bowl: Cal and Miami

A: please, Cal will wipe the floor with the Miami "d"

J: this is a battle of who could suck less.

A: Cal could. Cal by a handful of points and 300 rushing yards.

J: probably so.

A: only USC ever slowed down Jahved Best this year. Miami? Not so stout in the middle.

J: Not really. Even Texas A&M gave them a run for their money.

A: That makes this pick easy.

Selection: Cal

Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois

J: I actually have no clue about this game.

A: Uh-oh, another game I'm woefully unprepared to select. They're both on my list of favorite underdog teams.

J: nope, NIU was shut out by Navy, they're done for.

A: Navy's decent, though!

J: not good enough to shut out a bowl-bound team.

A: la tech lost 29-0 to kansas.

J: Kansas beat Missouri, though.

A: La Tech then lost to Army.

J: Oh. No clue then. Flip a coin?

A: nah, I like the Salukis just a little more. NIU by a field goal.

J: I can go with that.

Selection: Northern Illinois

Papajohns.com Bowl: Rutgers and North Carolina State

A: why not just the Papa Johns bowl? Why the “.com?” here are two very confusing teams that both played well at the end.

J: yeah, for sure

A: all of rutgers losses come to teams going to bowls, and I don't like how NCState played: big losses at bad times.

J: i don't like who NC State lost to.

A: I'm going to have to go with the State University of Jersey here

J: Yeah, me too.

Selection: Rutgers

Alamo Bowl: Missouri and Northwestern

J: another good one!

A: This is the battle of strikingly similar logos.

J: i'm actually picking NWern here. they looked solid through the big 10 and Mizzou was really weak against anyone with strength.

A: The only reason I'll agree is the expectations were way different for the two teams: Mizzou expected a BCS game, and NW didn't. Mizzou gets pounded every time they play someone great, and NW held their own throughout.

J: yeah, only win over a ranked team for Mizzou is the Illini in week 1.

A: watch out if Mizzou scores early, though. That could blow this prediction up, because I can't see NW playing catchup.

J: I just don't trust Chase [Daniel] to not crumble under pressure.

A: Okay, conditional pick [ed: doesn't count! Nice try.] - If Tigers score 10 points before NW, they win. otherwise, it's NW by 13.

J: i'll sign off on that.

Selection: Northwestern.

Humanitarian Bowl: Nevada and Maryland

A: ...with a whopping 24 tickets sold.

J: oh...really? Wow. i can't really blame anyone for not wanting to go to idaho in the middle of the winter though. Especially when one's on the balmy Atlantic coast and the other's in the desert.

A: I'm gonna go with the Wolfpack since they've at least been consistent - consistently mediocre, but consistent. who knows how Maryland will do? Great? Terribly?

J: yeah, maryland's on a down swing too.

A: Okay, Wolfpack by a touchdown late.

Selection: Nevada

Texas Bowl: Rice and Western Michigan

A: Rice, Rice, Baby!

J: rice has the history, for sure.

A: Home team with a great receiver. they're playing in their back yard, for pete's sake. no way will Rice lose this one.

J: and a 6 game winning streak coming in.

A: They're just way too good to fall now. Rice by two scores.

Selection: Rice

Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State and Oregon

A: I predict: whoever touches the ball last wins. Lots of offense. Middling defense.

J: OState has the edge on d, though. stop them twice and you're golden.

A: I'm going to give OK State the advantage on the ground. Hunter and Toston should tear them up and open up the biiiiig play action pass. I say Okie State by 4 with less than a minute to go.

J: with oregon driving on the 6?

A: nah, we'll hold em back at the 30. hail mary swatted down in the endzone. This game should be worth every penny of the ticket.

J: I think it's Ostate by at least 7.

Selection: Oklahoma State

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force and Houston

A: I'd love to pick air force, because I love how they play the game.

J: at least on offense.

A: but there is simply no way I cannot pick Houston.

J: I agree. Sumlin's gonna take them to the wood shed.

A: it'll be ugly, kiddos. Houston wins big in grand fashion. I'm thinking by 17 at least.

J: yeah, sounds good.

Selection: Houston

Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh and Oregon State

A: It's that other other OSU. nice neutral site [El Paso, TX] for teams from opposite coasts.

J: oregon state fell a lot after losing to oregon.

A: and pitt has finished strong. no need to banter stats, it's all toughness at this point.

J: probably so... but if Jacquizz is back, oregon state is really gonna kick it.

A: oh, good point. Is the kid going to be healthy and ready?

J: should be.

A: I love that kid, but even with him, I think Pitt wins.

J: pitt has a good rush defense in the big east, slightly anemic o. I'll go with that other OSU on this one.

Selection: [Split!] A-Pittsburgh, J-Oregon State

Music City Bowl: Boston College and Vanderbilt

J: BC was on a tear this season.

A: I would love to see Vandy win this one for their program.

J: i just can't see it happening, as much as it would be great for them.

A: nope, BC will whoop them with their stout D. And, uh, Vandy lost at Duke. 'Nuff Said.

J: Vandy lost 6 of their last 7. Ouch.

Selection: Boston College

Insight Bowl: Minnesota and Kansas

A: I think momentum favors Kansas. A big win in their finale versus a terrible loss for Min.

J: I think Mangino and his boys will pull it out.

A: yeah, poor golden gophers, dontchaknow.

J: they've been right...on the edge of being good this year too.

A: it'll be aboot a ten point game for those gosh darn hawks.

Selection: Kansas

Chik-fil-a Bowl: Georgia Tech and LSU

J: I don't think LSU has anything left in the tank and gt is riding high.

A: Agreed 100% Sorry coach Miles, not this year. triple option will run down the already beat up D.

Selection: Georgia Tech

Outback Bowl: Iowa and South Carolina

A: It has to be Iowa.

J: Their RB is kick a$$.

A: Shonn Greene will run up down and over the gamecocks.

Selection: Iowa

Capital One Bowl: Georgia and Michigan State

J: tough one to pick.

A: Toughest one so far, I think.

J: georgia got embarrassed twice this year at home.

A: I don't trust Sparty, but I don't know if Georgia is recovered from the Tech whooping.

J: i feel that MSU has a bad tendency of folding in big games

A: Okay, I'll take the Dawgs in a close one.

Selection: Georgia

Gator Bowl: Clemson and Nebraska

J: probably gonna be the beginning of Pelini's legend at N.

A: I think the established Ganz will tear through Clemson's D.

J: time for a big red return to glory.

A: well, not too glorious, I hope. Huskers by 9.

Selection: Nebraska

Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech and Ole Miss

A: TTech by 30.

J: it's a blowout.

A: not even close. Poor Tech. they really got shunted to a much lower Bowl than they deserved. Cotton Bowl is a great bowl game, don't get me wrong, but it's sad for them. Honestly, it couldn't have happened, but with OU in the NC game, Texas and Tech both deserved BCS slots.

J: Damn BCS rules.

A: yeah, sad.

J: oh well, Tech gets a blowout victory.

Selection: Texas Tech

Liberty Bowl: East Carolina and Kentucky

J: ECU almost certainly.

A: Kentucky always plays better than I expect and never as good as I imagine they could be. ECU should be a step ahead – Skip will have them ready.

J: for sure.

A: ECU by 4-9 points.

Selection: East Carolina

International Bowl: Connecticut and Buffalo

J: great game for Toronto.

A: both northeastern teams with a great passion for the game. That said, I'll take UConn's D and rushing attack slightly over Buff's great O

J: buffalo went to ot vs army.

A: UConn proved they could play with the big boys. I saw Uconn by two touchdowns, 17-3.

J: Maybe not that much, 13-10.

Selection: Connecticut

GMAC Bowl: Ball State and Tulsa

A: good game, also, this year.

J: another tough pick.

A: Hometown pride prevents me from going with the cards though. sorry, boys, I think you might win, but I've gotta pick the Hurricane.

J: yeah, but TU lost to some poor teams at the end of the year. Damn hometown pride. Yeah, I can go with TU.

A: hometown pride, bucko. It may not work out, but I gotta believe.

Selection: Tulsa

Rose Bowl: Penn State and USC

A: stats don't mean much to me for this game. We have teams from two polar opposite conferences.

J: yeah, for sure.

A: both teams play hard smash mouth D

J: that's always the problem with this game when they get who they want. USC hasn't beaten anyone that made me turn their head. Ohio State is the only impressive victory. I'm leaning towards PSU.

A: me too, but I'm just worried. USC always plays well in their back yard, and PSU hasn't played west of the Mississippi

J: it's a tough one.

A: I have to go with my gut and say USC.

J: i can respect that, but i'm gonna stick with PSU.

A: I can respect that.

Selection: [Split!] A-USC, J-Penn State

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati and Virginia Tech

A: not as good as some small games, but still a good match up.

J: Big East vs ACC. Cinci is really dominant in the secondary. VT has a kick-a$$ linebacker.

A: Yeah, but, VaTech doesn't pass. Ranked 111 in passing.They don't really run well either. it's all about Beamer Ball: Turnovers, good D, and blocked punts.

J: wow, cinci is 13th nationally against the run.

A: okay, that sealed it. Cinci, baby, in an ugly game.

Selection: Cincinnati

Sugar Bowl: Alabama and Utah

A: Bama, bama, bama!

J: man, i dunno.

A: I've ragged Bama as a good-not-great team for quite a while, but that's what utah is also.

J: Utah runs the same offense that just beat bama, but not with as good of a QB.

A: and that's where it counts in the spread!

J: For sure. Okay, Alabama.

A: Close one though.

Selection: Alabama

Fiesta Bowl: Texas and Ohio State

A: Texas, texas, texas! Shouldn't even be close. Shouldn't be a good game.

J: For sure. I want tOSU to win, but they won't.

A: forget the Buckeyes and their mediocrity. Texas is damn good.

J: tOSU just got in because they were second-best in a sh!tty conference..

A: Texas was a few seconds from being NC contenders. (as they like to remind us every 3.8 seconds)

J: I feel ya.

A: Texas big, probably by 18.

J: oh, at least. Texas it is.

Selection: Texas

National Championship Game: Oklahoma and Florida

A: f#ck if I know.

J: it's gonna be a hard game. As you can imagine, i've spent a lot of time thinking about it. i can't really see a way for Florida to beat us. they're good, they have a great offensive punch, but they haven't played anyone like us.

A: do we get the '01 Sooners with their great discipline? Or the 04 Sooners with the USC debacle? You lose if you beat yourselves.

J: the USC game was a fluke. they were just better. we didn't belong there that year.

A: and LSU?

J: that was a broken toe and thumb on our qb. and the oc not trusting the backup enough to put him in. The LSU game was a shame. 5 minutes longer of a game, we'd have that one won though.

A: yes, you likely would have, but you didn't.

J: Jason [White] figured out how to throw the ball with a broken hand, which is really kind of amazing.

A: I don't think Bradford will let the offense beat themselves this year. But okay, I've gotta say, this will come down to the Florida secondary. if they find a way to hold the receivers down with Murray being out, they might win it. But I just don't see it. I'm going with the sooners

J: Brown also has 1000 yards this season. Murray is important, but he's not been 100% all season.

A: alright, I'm going to give it to OU by 10. 17 if the gators give up in the fourth quarter.

J: yeah, or if we hang 35 by halftime.

A: hell, I'll pick any team that hangs 35 by half. I'd pick the University of Washington if they scored that much at half. Well, maybe not UW.

J: wow, just looked at TO margin rankings. Florida is #2, OU is #1. Neither team gives up the ball.

A: You're nearly identical squads, if you ask me. Your quarterback is more pro-type.

J: They probably win out at top wide receiver. But overall, i think we have better depth.

A: in a game that hard fought, it may come down to that.

J: It may.

A: okay, we have a winner, folks.

Selection: Oklahoma wins the National Championship.

An Introduction

Since it seems that I am still not able to keep up with posting on a regular basis, I have asked an old friend to join the team. He will bring a fresh perspective and excelent writing skills to bear in the coming weeks. Expect the flavor of this blog to change a little, though, as Adam bleeds Orange and Black, not Crimson and Cream.

I am hoping that the addition of another contributor will help to keep this thing going.

Queue up the Queen

I'm sure that if I want to call myself a sports blogger that covers Oklahoma, I have to weigh in on this whole BCS/OU/Tech/Texas mess. We managed to play our way into the championship game and we'll be facing off against a surprisingly weak Missouri team for a shot at all the nachos. I know that everyone has already beat this to death and that we're all probably sick of hearing it, but here's a quick breakdown of the positions of the different sides.

Texas — Since all the arguing is due to the 'Horns whining to everyone who would listen that the system isn't fair, let's look at their argument first. Basically, Brown&Co. want you to remember some things and forget others. They want you to remember the final score of a game played in Dallas on October 11th. They would prefer that you don't go back and watch that game, however, as you might realize that their "10-point win" is only 10 points because of a touchdown scored with only four minutes and change left in the game. Before that it was only three, and only that because of a two-point conversion. They also don't want you to see how at least three of their scoring drives were extended by blown or bad calls. I still don't see how you can flag a guy for a late hit when he's trying to keep the quarterback from going head-long into his own bench. Forget the Heisman, Colt McCoy should win a freaking Tony.

They would also like to remind you that the very next game, they took on the best the North Division has to offer in Austin and beat them soundly. I can hardly type that without breaking into hysterical laughter. Missouri does, indeed, seem to be the best team in the North, but being the best of the worst really isn't that great a distinction.

So what do the ShortHorns want you to ignore? How about that during the two weeks following Mizzou they really dropped the ball? It took a last-second stand and an errant pass to keep from being upset at home by (a much improved) Oklahoma State. Not even that, however, could keep Graham Harrell and Texas Tech from embarrassing Texas in Lubbock. I know the final score of that game was very close (4 points). I also know that a Texas defender dropped an interception that would have sealed the victory for the 'Horns. What most people don't know (because Texas hasn't been yelling about it) is that Texas didn't even have a lead in that game until just before said dropped interception. Tech lead for 58 minutes and 31 seconds in that game. At half-time, the score was 22-6 and most people had already counted Texas out. It took some late-game heroics from McCoy for Texas to be able to drive home feeling only disappointed, not disgusted.

Texas Tech — If I have any guilt in this entire mess, it is because of how Tech had arguably the best season of their entire history and the major media outlets are pretending that they don't even exist. Tech manged to go undefeated into the thirteenth week of the season in what is probably the toughest division in all of Division I football. They not only put up ridiculous numbers in the air, but also have the best rushing yard per game average of any Mike Leach team to date. They defeated the first-ranked Longhorns in what turned into a close game, but started out as a rout. The only chink in their armor is that they had to play OU in Norman.

Multiple factors came to bear in that game that made it look very bad for Tech. First, Oklahoma has the longest home win streak in the nation helped by an intense crowd and a stadium designed to funnel noise to the field. Second, Tech's only win in Norman occurred 12 years ago when John Blake was the coach at OU (Blake went 12-22 in three seasons, the worst three-year stretch in Sooner history). Third, the Sooners came into the game knowing they had to win to have a shot at achieving their goals. It was a perfect storm of circumstances that lead to a game that quickly got out of hand. Because it was so one-sided and happened so late in the season, every major media outlet has completely dropped Tech from their discussions about who should win the South.

That's perfect for Texas, of course. As long as the public opinion is that the race is between only OU and UT, they appear to have the upper hand due to the Shootout. If you bring in the Red Raiders, the 'Horns have to defend their pitiful performance in Lubbock and Oklahoma gets to traipse out their destruction of Tech in Norman. All of a sudden, the issue doesn't look as clear-cut, does it? Also, look at the numbers in my last post. I'll update them soon, but before the game in Norman, Tech was basically destroying every defense they faced while giving up significantly fewer yards.

Oklahoma — Believe it or not, this was the hardest section of this to write. It makes me feel a little dirty to rub it in now that the issue has been decided in our favor, but I feel that there are some points that haven't been made clear in most things I've either read or heard.

First, every team in the South division plays at least five of the same opponents, though this year all three of the top teams played six (Kansas as well as the normal games). Probably the best way to compare the performance of the teams is to compare the score differentials from those games. If you do that, you see that Oklahoma won the common games (including head-to-heads) by 138 points, Texas by 100, and Tech by 65. The margin of victory there is almost four times Texas's in the head-to-head.

Second, Texas' entire argument is that the head-to-head is the only factor that matters. I figure that if it was so damn important, it would decide the issue with no argument at all. If there is still ambiguity after that, it has to be set aside in preference of other factors. I know that's not how other conferences do it, but UT's athletic director has a vote on the rules committee too. If he didn't like it, he should have forced the change then. (BTW, if anyone knows where to find it, I'd like to see who voted how on the tie-breaker rule when it was devised).

Third, Texas was able to gain a total of around 75 points in the human polls after last week's games. I don't know what games the voters were watching, but Texas was un-inspiring at home while OU played a hell of a game against a very good opponent on the road (the same team that nearly defeated Texas in Austin just over a month before). OU is only second because the computers rewarded us for having the stronger non-conference schedule (thanks, TCU and Cincinnati). Simply put, OU got it done on field against better opponents all season long.

Last words — There is a strong argument for all three of the teams that have a claim to the South division crown. Obviously, only one could attend the conference championship game but all three will be named division champs (as I remember). I'm very happy that Oklahoma got the nod, but I wish that it hadn't come down to this. I wish we'd gotten it done in Dallas and held on to our lead, but we didn't. The Sooners now just have to win convincingly against Mizzou and then represent the conference well in the BCS title game. Hopefully, come early January this will all be behind us and the athletic department can move on to their next challenge: figuring out how to fit "2008" on the front of the press-box.

That was a long break

It's been over a year, but I think I'm finally ready to pick this thing up again and give it a second shot. Hopefully this time I'll actually be able to keep up with it. That said, I saw something on MGoBlog's Mailbag today that sparked my interest. Apparently, one of Brian's friends did a comparison of teams in the Big Ten where he looked at their net yards per play average (YPPA). I thought it would be interesting to do the same for the Big XII. Here is the basic premise from that e-mail:

Net YPPA [Yards Per Play Average] so far this year are remarkable. It is the only singular team quality measure that I have ever found. As I have mentioned, I think the number shows more about “how good a team is” than wins and losses. Plus 3 is a possible NC team. Plus 2 is a top 15 team. Minus 2 is a complete patsy.

I'm not quite sure how Craig adjusted for sacks. Actually, I'm not sure how Craig even did the calculation at all. After looking at Ohio State's statistics and running through all the formulas I could come up with, I couldn't replicate his numbers. So, I just faked it and got rough estimates by dividing the total offensive and defensive yards by the total number of offensive and defensive plays, respectively. If you have a suggestion about how to make this more accurate, I'm all ears. I took statistics twice and didn't learn a damn thing either time. So then, how does the Big XII look? Here's a breakdown by division. I've also included over-all conference rank and threw in the rest of the top 5 (Alabama and Florida) for argument's sake.

North Division
Team	Off. YPPA	Def. YPPA	Net YPPA	Conf. Rank
Missouri (8-2)	7.31	5.11	2.20	2
Kansas (6-4)	6.13	5.49	0.64	6
Nebraska (6-4)	6.47	5.99	0.48	8
Kansas St. (4-6)	5.84	5.92	-0.08	9
Colorado (5-5)	4.47	5.36	-0.89	10
Iowa St. (2-8)	5.27	6.63	-1.36	12
South Division
Team	Off. YPPA	Def. YPPA	Net YPPA	Conf. Rank
Texas Tech (10-0)	7.49	5.18	2.31	1
Oklahoma (9-1)	7.01	4.88	2.13	3
Oklahoma St. (8-2)	7.19	5.40	1.79	4
Texas (9-1)	6.57	5.41	1.16	5
Baylor (3-7)	5.79	5.29	0.50	7
Texas A&M (4-6)	5.29	6.21	-0.92	11
Other Top 5
Team	Off. YPPA	Def. YPPA	Net YPPA	Conf. Rank
Alabama (10-0)	5.69	4.23	1.46	--
Florida (8-1)	6.72	4.55	2.17	--

I know that comparing across conferences is difficult at best, but it is interesting to note that Alabama ranks below both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on this chart while Florida ranks just above Oklahoma and barely behind Missouri. It would be interesting to see what other things could be counted in to this to make it a more accurate representation of a team's quality. Right off the top of my head, I want to try an add special teams and turnover margin, but I'm not sure how you would do that. I'll ponder on it and hopefully have another post about this next week. Look for a preview of the Texas Tech game later next week and maybe reviews of the State vs. Tech and OU vs. A&M games this weekend.

Gundy spawns funny stuff

Well, it appears that Gundy's press conference has spawned some fun for the advertisers (and wannabes). Here we go with some goodies off of YouTube.

Haitus

I know its a bit odd to take a break so soon into starting a blog, but to be honest, I just don't feel like doing it anymore. It has a little bit to do with the Colorado loss, a little bit to do with a lack of sleep and a lot to do with not wanting to work on the computer when I get home from a full day of working on a computer. I may get back on the bandwagon if things slow down or they actually hire someone to help me.

Something resembling a schedule

Okay, I think I have this figured out well enough to put down a weekly schedule. It could still change and flukes like playing on Friday will almost always cause some major upset. By the way, my weeks always begin on Saturday during football season. I say, get it out front and enjoy it. Saturday – Randomness but little content. After all, I'm watching football. Sunday – "Sunday Roll-call," a short review of some of the games from the previous day. Monday – "News Update," a few links to interesting or relevant news stories from around college sports. Tuesday – In-depth review of the last game. Wednesday – ?? Thursday – "Dear Coach," an open letter to a head or assistant coach who has done something to draw my attention. Friday – Preview of the upcoming game. Preview of something else on bye weeks.

Dear Coach: Mike Gundy

Dear Coach, When you took over from Les "Don't let me speak to the media" Miles, I thought State had made a turn for the better. Over the last two seasons you have provided evidence that, while still building, the Pokes can be a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12. You took a program that was succeeding on the field (but floundering off of it) and gave it new direction. You were not afraid to require that players respect the authority of the city of Stillwater and the rules of the campus administration. I gained great respect for you when you refused to tolerate any behavior that compromised the reputation of your school or your program. I don't need to tell you this, but it took guts to kick off the players you did. You realized that to build, you needed a solid foundation; to step out of the shadow cast by the other schools in your division, you will need to build very tall, indeed. That is why is was slightly disappointed and more than a little surprised by your press conference last week. I refuse to call it a "rant" or "tirade" like so many media outlets are, but it was very puzzling behavior coming from a man who had a reputation for being so level-headed. I understand that Jenni Carlson crossed a line by attacking the character of Reid, and I understand that you had just ridden the emotional roller-coaster of a late upset win. That does not excuse you, however, from taking responsibility for your actions. Just for a moment, let's trade places. For this brief time, let me be the coach and you the promising young man. Don't let your pride get in the way of realizing when you have made a mistake; don't try to shy away from the repercussions of your words. Instead, take this opportunity to prove that Oklahoma State made the right choice when they promoted you to head coach. Prove to the entire world that you are not only the leader of your team on the field, but also off of it. Show that you still have those guts and offer an apology to Jenni, her editor and The Daily Oklahoman. You have proven to your team and your fans that you will defend the student-athletes that have been placed in your care, now prove to the world that you have the moral character to shape them to be men as well.

Lack of Updates?

Yeah, sorry about that, but Halo 3 came out... Updates will commence again shortly and should be going in full swing next week.

News Update

• Jenni Carlson's article starts a firestorm – After Oklahoma State eked out a victory over Texas Tech on Saturday, you would expect Mike Gundy to be happy during his press conference. Normally, Gundy would extol the virtues of his assistant coaches, praise the poise and confidence of his quarterback and receivers, or at least address how his secondary could give up 646 yards of passing. Instead, he did this: Now, I've read the article that he's talking about, and I agree that it was unnecessarily harsh on poor Bobby Reid. That's not too surprising, though, as Jenni isn't known for liking State. She's also not known for being a good writer, or doing research, or in any way being a good journalist. If you analyze her evidence, it's all based on "the rumors and the rumblings" she has heard around campus. Of course, when you consider that she lives in Oklahoma City you kind of have to wonder when Jenni's even been on campus, let alone when she's had time to hear rumors there. Does that condone Gundy's reaction? Not really. Did Jenni deserve getting called out for writing a crappy piece? Yes, but not like that. Gundy should have had State's marketing department write him something and then make a formal press release. I'd also really like to know what, exactly, the inaccuracies that he mentioned are. Unfortunately, he's not talking about what they are. I imagine that more of the details will come out as the weeks pass. I just hope, for Gundy's sake, that none of those rumors were true.
• Other Big 12 Coaches Agree With Gundy – In an interesting move, ESPN not only decried Gundy's press conference, but also printed the supporting words of other coaches in the Big 12. Stoops, Mack Brown, Dan Hawkins, and Bill Callahan all agreed that sometimes the media is a little rough on student athletes. I was surprised to hear that none of those five coaches read newspaper articles about their teams. I guess that makes sense, as the coach would know a lot more about what is happening on his team than any reporter, but it still seems a bit odd.
• Men's Basketball Tickets On Sale Tuesday – It's almost that time again. Also, the women's team released their full schedule.

Sunday Roll-call

• Oklahoma — I have to say, it was very odd watching OU football on a Friday night. Apparently, the high school coaches in the Tulsa area were very peeved about ESPN usurping their normal game night. They ended up playing most HS games on Thursday so that their kids could both play and watch two of the in-state options. I'm sure most of them were more impressed by Oklahoma's performance than Tulsa's. The defense did more or less what I expected. They slowed down Tulsa's passing game by completely destroying any attempts to run the football. Three picks (though no returns of them) were the result. Also, Murray's kickoff return was amazing...guess I picked the wrong to have a big night on special teams. I'll live with it. The only disappointment was that Hartley missed his field goal and had an XPT blocked.
• Tulsa — Even though they got blown out, at home, in front of a hostile crowd, the Golden Hurricane really accounted well for themselves. Nine different players caught passes for Tulsa. Smith put up 350 yards on Oklahoma's defense and generally looked like a very good QB. Tulsa did, however, prove me right that the rushing numbers they had accumulated earlier in the season were all smoke, mirrors, and bad defenses.
• Michigan — Well, it wasn't pretty, but it was a win. Mallett actually made enough throws to get a good feel for his ability as a quarterback. He'll do okay after a year or so, but Henne needs to get well for them to salvage this season. Mike Hart, however, looked like a complete and total bad-ass...as usual.

That's actually all the football I watched for the whole weekend, sorry.

Preview – Oklahoma at Tulsa

While by no means a rivalry on the scope of Bedlam or the Red River Shootout, there are still quite a few people where I grew up in north-eastern Oklahoma that get really fired up about this game. Historically, the Golden Hurricane have had a lot of trouble with the Boys from the South(-west). History Me and my crew, we stay true, old skool or new Many were called, but the chosen were few Oklahoma and Tulsa have played 22 times and the Sooners own a two-thirds advantage in wins. The two schools met for the first time in 1914 (OU won 26-7). Of the last nine meetings, the Sooners have won eight. Tulsa's new head coach has never played against OU and Stoops has passed all three of his tests. The last time these teams met, Oklahoma scored 37 points and shut Tulsa out. Offense vs. Tulsa We rep the South, so what you talking about? I'm not running off my mouth, I know this without a doubt In their two wins, Tulsa has given up an average of 301.5 passing yards (including 537 to Brigham Young). When you consider that Oklahoma is ranked 12th nationally in passing yards and has the 3rd best quarterback by passer rating in the nation, you are looking at a major advantage for the Sooners. Tulsa is also giving up more than 180 yards per game on the ground, which stacks up poorly against Oklahoma's number 13 rushing offense (240+ ypg). Unfortunately for Tulsa, the numbers alone don't tell the whole story. Remember that Tulsa played a very long game on Saturday (almost four hours). Combined with the short week, you're looking at a defense that will not be at its most fresh. OU on the other hand, rested their starters for most of the second half against Utah State. Bradford and Kelly will likely both have career days again. Expect to see right around 12 catches for Kelly with probably 3 touchdowns. Iglesias will have fewer touches, but not many, and he also will probably get some chances to run the ball on reverses and long laterals. Bradford may break his own school record for yards in a half and if he plays until the final shotgun blasts (doubtful), he'll definitely re-write the books for yards in a single game. Expect Patrick to get the nod as starter, but Murray will get a lot of shots as well. Right now, of course, starting running back is just a name-only thing. Madu will get his share, as will Brown. We definitely won't go another game without a rushing touchdown. Defense vs. Tulsa Boom! Here comes the Boom! Ready or not, here comes the boys from the South! This is where the game gets scary. Tulsa's pass offense is over 70 yards per game better than ours and is ranked 6th in the nation. You're talking a very serious air attack. No surprise since Tulsa is only two years removed from playing in the pass-happy WAC. Of course, Oklahoma's secondary is well-ranked too: 14th nationally in passing defense and 9th in opposing passer's efficiency. This will be the first real test of the skill of our defensive backs, but I'm sure they'll be up to the challenge. A lot of that confidence comes from Tulsa's under-powered rushing attack. Possibly another hold-over from their years playing teams like Hawaii and Fresno State. Tulsa averages a respectable 160 yards per game on the turf, but they did most of that damage against UL-Monroe's cellar-dwelling D (110th against the run, 105th against the pass, and 112th overall). On the other side of the ball, you have a defense that is giving up less than 45 yards per game. OU has a dominant and deep defensive line that is backed-up by a solid linebacker core. If we make Tulsa one-dimensional by either shutting down their run or getting on top early (both very, very likely) the Sooners will be able to lock down Tulsa's receivers with cornerbacks while keeping a safety or two over the top to pull down any errant passes. I figure we'll pull in at least three picks, one will go back for a touchdown and Tulsa's passing juggernaut will be slowed down (but not stopped). Special Teams vs. Tulsa I know you know. I see you smiling at me. Well, it's alright! It's alright! Three names, then I'm done: Iglesias, Hartley, Groza Final score: Oklahoma 51, Tulsa 14 Lyrics: P.O.D. - Boom!

What is wrong with A&M?

I'm sitting here watching the Miami (FL)/Texas A&M game and I can't figure out what's wrong with the Aggies. Come on, two fumbles on consecutive plays? That's not A&M football. Oh well, it doesn't matter to Oklahoma's ranking in the long run as long as we beat them both. By the way, no post for Wednesday because I went to the State Fair. Stay tuned for a preview of the OU/Tulsa game. This whole short week is really making it difficult to get a schedule set up.

Blogpoll Roundtable 3.2

Even though I'm not a part of the poll (you have to be around for 6 months before you can join), I thought I'd give my hand at filling out the Roundtable discussion as originally posted at Burnt Orange Nation. It seemed like a fitting thing to do since I have no idea what other columns I'm going to end up putting on this blog. That said, here we go: 1. Handicap your team's chances to win your conference championship. If your team is not the favorite, who is? To echo the blog that originally posted these questions, it all hinges on the game in Dallas. Historically, if we win the Red River Shootout (I refuse to use the PC name that the phone company cooked up) we end up winning the division. To be exact, since the inception of the Big 12 in 1996, we've won the Shootout six times and represented the South four of those years. Of the other five years, we've gone once. Since OU has won four out of five times we've gone to the game, we're looking pretty good to bring home the title...assuming we can beat the boys in orange and white. The actual percentages, however, tell a different tale giving OU only a 53.6% chance of bringing home the bacon. Of course, I really didn't enjoy statistics in college. 2. Outline the (realistic) best case and worst case scenarios for your team. Best case: From the performance of the team so far against (apparently) sub-par competition, I would say we have a fair shot at an undefeated season. Our schedule is extremely friendly with only four (yes, four) road games. The first is at Tulsa this Friday, so I'll have a better idea of our chances on Saturday. Of the remaining three, two are against the North division (ISU and CU, so probable wins) and the last is against Texas Tech. I'd call the TT game a probable win too, but we all remember what happened the last time we traveled to Lubbock. So, looking at what is actually on our schedule and considering the competition, I'd say 11-1 with a berth in the Fiesta or Rose Bowl. I fully reserve the right to change this to a national championship prediction if we beat Texas by three or more touchdowns. Worst case: We lose to Texas in Dallas, Tech in Lubbock, and Missou surprises us (and the world) at home. It's possible to go 9-3 in which case we'd miss the conference championship game and probably play Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl (again). 3. We're only three games in to the season, but teams and storylines are starting to take shape. Compare your team to a character or theme from a fable or children's tale. I guess it's not a fable, but Oklahoma could be compared to Alexander the Great and his conquest of Persia. We're an unstoppable horde that looks hell-bent on destroying everything in our path, even if it means delaying for seven months just to make sure we don't leave an enemy at our backs. The only thing with a chance of bringing us down at this point is either a revolt by the troops (O-line) or some mysterious disease that suddenly wipes out our leader (Bradford). 4. Imagine you're the coach of your team. Give three specific changes you'd implement immediately which you think would have the biggest impact on improving the team. Put a redshirt on Nichol – We're not going to need him this season as both Halzle and McEachern are decent replacements. If you keep leading him on with the promise of maybe starting a game this season, you could end up with a situation like Notre Dame finds themselves in. Also, recent evidence shows that having a young QB run the scout team for a year really improves their performance when it comes to games (White, Thompson, and Bradford to name three). Involve the tight ends and fullbacks in the passing game – This is less of a change from early this season and more of from last season. So far, the coaching staff has used Gresham and Finley very well, they even tossed a touchdown to Zaslaw against Miami. I have always felt that involving your backs in the passing game slows down the linebackers and defensive ends. The concept (at least with fullbacks) is similar to a screen: if you get four yards on a completion to the FB because the 'backer let him go to try and get a sack, the opposing defense can't be as aggressive. This in turn gives your receivers more time to break off the DBs and get down-field for the long bomb. Which in turn opens up the running game, forcing the linebackers to get more aggressive...you see where I'm going, I bet. Offer Venables the equivalent of a head coach's salary – Obviously, you can't pay him as much as Bob gets, but maybe as much as Mike? Seriously, this man has been the heart and soul of the Oklahoma defense for nine years. If we lose him to an HC job somewhere, will we still have a kick-ass defense? Yes. If we keep him could we win four national championships in a row? Yes. I am not trying to pull anyone's leg here. If we keep Bradford for three years, get Nichol experience on the scout team and keep Venables in charge of the defense, we could contend for at least a share of the next four titles. To do this, we'll have to keep him from being snapped up in the post-season feeding frenzy that is college coaching changes. To do that we'll probably need to be ready to beat any offer from any other program (including Oklahoma State, Georgia, and possibly Michigan). If it means you have to put off expanding the stadium for a few more years, fine, just keep Venables on the sidelines. 5. USC, LSU/Florida, and Oklahoma have established themselves as the frontrunners in the early going. Which other team or teams are you eyeballing as potential BCS party crashers? If Texas wins in Dallas, they have a legitimate shot at forcing all kinds of wacky stuff to happen. Florida also has a valid chance to beat LSU (that same day, by the way) and USC could still lose to three or four teams in conference play. Expect someone from the Big East to make a go again (after all, they have to send someone); Rutgers or West Virginia probably, but don't rule out South Florida. Boston College out of the ACC looks strong too. Surprisingly, I can't think of a team in the Big 10 that I think will actually challenge for the national championship game this year. Penn State will probably win the conference and make it to the Rose Bowl, but I just don't see them being strong enough to pick up the votes needed to make a fuss over. That's the curse of being a program that people expect to do reasonably well: when you do but don't win every week, no one really notices.

News Update

• OU Basketball holds open try-outs – Well, we knew they were a little short on people after the majority of our big-name recruits bailed after Sampson-gate hit. I hope they pick up some good players, 'cuz Capel is a pretty good guy (for a Dookie).
• Women's volleyball on FSN Wednesday – It is good to see the ladies getting some attention. It seems like women's volleyball is one of the least-appreciated NCAA sports, but it's damn fun to watch. I'd suggest you give it a look and, if you enjoy it on TV, go see a few games.
• Boren opens his mouth again – He's talking about OU's chances of winning their appeal of the vacation of the eight wins from the 2005 season. Apparently he thinks it's even money. I was only slightly surprised to see that he brought up USC. You know, for a retired politician, he can be very blunt when he wants to make a point, too bad the powers-that-be are so dense.
• Bradford gets on some Heisman lists – While he's sure to get some votes come December, don't put money on him pulling off what Peterson couldn't. If he keeps up like he has been, he'll be invited to New York, though.

Slow week. At least no one was arrested.

Sunday Roll-call

In this (hopefully) weekly column, I'm going to discuss the performance of a few of the major teams from around the NCAA. Most of the time, I've watched these games, though sometimes I've seen only a few minutes. So, here we go:

• Oklahoma State — While I never really bought the marketing hype about the Pokes having the best offense in the nation this year, I did feel that they could be very, very good. What I, and everyone else, apparently forgot to think about was the fact that defensive players need to be able to tackle...at least a little. I don't think that we can chalk this up to inexperience as much as it looked like a complete lack of effort on the defensive side of the ball. Add to that an enormous number of dropped passes by some usually very good receivers (*cough* Adarius Bowman *cough*) and you end up with a lop-sided loss to possibly the best team in the Sun Belt Conference this year.
• Notre Dame — What can I say here? They absolutely sucked. Clausen was horrible, so was the rest of the offense. Their defense looked hopeless and completely over-matched. If I was a domer, it would have been painful...
• Michigan — ...fortunately, I'm not. Michigan looked like they were back in force. Their performance was definitely enhanced by the fact that Notre Dame was horrible, but I still think they may have turned it around. I'm not going to pick them to win the Big 10, though, that's going to be Penn State, but they could end the season with only 4 losses. That should redeem Lloyd Carr's name enough that he can retire with grace, especially if they end up beating Ohio State this year.
• That other school that wears orange — I have to say that I'm not sure how Mack Brown pulled this one off. For the third straight week, they had a big scare against what should have been an inferior opponent. McCoy looks to be firmly in the grasp of the Law of Averages, which bodes very poorly for short-horn fans. Their running game leaves a lot to be desired as well, though Charles did look good late as did their third-down back Ogbonnaya.
• USC — I was as unimpressed this time as I was when they blundered past Idaho. Now, I'll admit that I did not watch the whole game. I actually only saw the first and fourth quarters (so when Nebraska was playing well) and nothing of the other two. I understand from reading that they have finally decided which of their four million running backs they are going to start. Really, I think this is mostly just reaction against the media (and especially Herbstreit) practically creaming themselves every time they mention the University of Spoiled Children. They're a good football team, but these folks are gushing so much you'd think that they could hold their own against an NFL team and that the rest of the NCAA should just go ahead and forfeit the entire season and let Carrol claim another national championship they didn't earn (no, I'm not bitter, I swear). Anyway, they won, but it wasn't as impressive as LSU dominating VT last week and if I had a vote they'd probably be #4 on my ballot.
• Oklahoma — I almost feel guilty writing about this game. I didn't go and I didn't want to pay more than the cost of a ticket to get the pay-per-view. I did, however, listen to it on the radio. We won, it was impressive, Utah State was not a test. Basically the same story as the last few weeks. The only constructive things I have to say are these: 1) Bradford looks like the best choice the coaches could have made, 2) I'm glad Nichol isn't the starter and 3) damn...our defense rocks! Also, Bob Barry and Marv are probably the funniest play-by-play/color combination in all of sports radio...too bad it's not on purpose.

Well, that's the column. Give me some criticism (constructive or otherwise).

It's ON!

Here we go, I'm throwing my hat into the sports blog world. I hope to have analysis of Oklahoma games, previews of opponents, and hopefully some intelligent thoughts about the state of college football in general and the Big 12 in specific. As a more personal introduction, I graduated from the University of Oklahoma in Norman with a Bachelor's of Business Administration in Management Information Systems in 2005. I'm married, own two dogs and a cat, and I live in Oklahoma City.