That was a long break

It's been over a year, but I think I'm finally ready to pick this thing up again and give it a second shot. Hopefully this time I'll actually be able to keep up with it. That said, I saw something on MGoBlog's Mailbag today that sparked my interest. Apparently, one of Brian's friends did a comparison of teams in the Big Ten where he looked at their net yards per play average (YPPA). I thought it would be interesting to do the same for the Big XII. Here is the basic premise from that e-mail:

Net YPPA [Yards Per Play Average] so far this year are remarkable. It is the only singular team quality measure that I have ever found. As I have mentioned, I think the number shows more about “how good a team is” than wins and losses. Plus 3 is a possible NC team. Plus 2 is a top 15 team. Minus 2 is a complete patsy.

I'm not quite sure how Craig adjusted for sacks. Actually, I'm not sure how Craig even did the calculation at all. After looking at Ohio State's statistics and running through all the formulas I could come up with, I couldn't replicate his numbers. So, I just faked it and got rough estimates by dividing the total offensive and defensive yards by the total number of offensive and defensive plays, respectively. If you have a suggestion about how to make this more accurate, I'm all ears. I took statistics twice and didn't learn a damn thing either time. So then, how does the Big XII look? Here's a breakdown by division. I've also included over-all conference rank and threw in the rest of the top 5 (Alabama and Florida) for argument's sake.

North Division
Team	Off. YPPA	Def. YPPA	Net YPPA	Conf. Rank
Missouri (8-2)	7.31	5.11	2.20	2
Kansas (6-4)	6.13	5.49	0.64	6
Nebraska (6-4)	6.47	5.99	0.48	8
Kansas St. (4-6)	5.84	5.92	-0.08	9
Colorado (5-5)	4.47	5.36	-0.89	10
Iowa St. (2-8)	5.27	6.63	-1.36	12
South Division
Team	Off. YPPA	Def. YPPA	Net YPPA	Conf. Rank
Texas Tech (10-0)	7.49	5.18	2.31	1
Oklahoma (9-1)	7.01	4.88	2.13	3
Oklahoma St. (8-2)	7.19	5.40	1.79	4
Texas (9-1)	6.57	5.41	1.16	5
Baylor (3-7)	5.79	5.29	0.50	7
Texas A&M (4-6)	5.29	6.21	-0.92	11
Other Top 5
Team	Off. YPPA	Def. YPPA	Net YPPA	Conf. Rank
Alabama (10-0)	5.69	4.23	1.46	--
Florida (8-1)	6.72	4.55	2.17	--

I know that comparing across conferences is difficult at best, but it is interesting to note that Alabama ranks below both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on this chart while Florida ranks just above Oklahoma and barely behind Missouri. It would be interesting to see what other things could be counted in to this to make it a more accurate representation of a team's quality. Right off the top of my head, I want to try an add special teams and turnover margin, but I'm not sure how you would do that. I'll ponder on it and hopefully have another post about this next week. Look for a preview of the Texas Tech game later next week and maybe reviews of the State vs. Tech and OU vs. A&M games this weekend.

Sunday Roll-call

• Oklahoma — I have to say, it was very odd watching OU football on a Friday night. Apparently, the high school coaches in the Tulsa area were very peeved about ESPN usurping their normal game night. They ended up playing most HS games on Thursday so that their kids could both play and watch two of the in-state options. I'm sure most of them were more impressed by Oklahoma's performance than Tulsa's. The defense did more or less what I expected. They slowed down Tulsa's passing game by completely destroying any attempts to run the football. Three picks (though no returns of them) were the result. Also, Murray's kickoff return was amazing...guess I picked the wrong to have a big night on special teams. I'll live with it. The only disappointment was that Hartley missed his field goal and had an XPT blocked.
• Tulsa — Even though they got blown out, at home, in front of a hostile crowd, the Golden Hurricane really accounted well for themselves. Nine different players caught passes for Tulsa. Smith put up 350 yards on Oklahoma's defense and generally looked like a very good QB. Tulsa did, however, prove me right that the rushing numbers they had accumulated earlier in the season were all smoke, mirrors, and bad defenses.
• Michigan — Well, it wasn't pretty, but it was a win. Mallett actually made enough throws to get a good feel for his ability as a quarterback. He'll do okay after a year or so, but Henne needs to get well for them to salvage this season. Mike Hart, however, looked like a complete and total bad-ass...as usual.

That's actually all the football I watched for the whole weekend, sorry.

Preview – Oklahoma at Tulsa

While by no means a rivalry on the scope of Bedlam or the Red River Shootout, there are still quite a few people where I grew up in north-eastern Oklahoma that get really fired up about this game. Historically, the Golden Hurricane have had a lot of trouble with the Boys from the South(-west). History Me and my crew, we stay true, old skool or new Many were called, but the chosen were few Oklahoma and Tulsa have played 22 times and the Sooners own a two-thirds advantage in wins. The two schools met for the first time in 1914 (OU won 26-7). Of the last nine meetings, the Sooners have won eight. Tulsa's new head coach has never played against OU and Stoops has passed all three of his tests. The last time these teams met, Oklahoma scored 37 points and shut Tulsa out. Offense vs. Tulsa We rep the South, so what you talking about? I'm not running off my mouth, I know this without a doubt In their two wins, Tulsa has given up an average of 301.5 passing yards (including 537 to Brigham Young). When you consider that Oklahoma is ranked 12th nationally in passing yards and has the 3rd best quarterback by passer rating in the nation, you are looking at a major advantage for the Sooners. Tulsa is also giving up more than 180 yards per game on the ground, which stacks up poorly against Oklahoma's number 13 rushing offense (240+ ypg). Unfortunately for Tulsa, the numbers alone don't tell the whole story. Remember that Tulsa played a very long game on Saturday (almost four hours). Combined with the short week, you're looking at a defense that will not be at its most fresh. OU on the other hand, rested their starters for most of the second half against Utah State. Bradford and Kelly will likely both have career days again. Expect to see right around 12 catches for Kelly with probably 3 touchdowns. Iglesias will have fewer touches, but not many, and he also will probably get some chances to run the ball on reverses and long laterals. Bradford may break his own school record for yards in a half and if he plays until the final shotgun blasts (doubtful), he'll definitely re-write the books for yards in a single game. Expect Patrick to get the nod as starter, but Murray will get a lot of shots as well. Right now, of course, starting running back is just a name-only thing. Madu will get his share, as will Brown. We definitely won't go another game without a rushing touchdown. Defense vs. Tulsa Boom! Here comes the Boom! Ready or not, here comes the boys from the South! This is where the game gets scary. Tulsa's pass offense is over 70 yards per game better than ours and is ranked 6th in the nation. You're talking a very serious air attack. No surprise since Tulsa is only two years removed from playing in the pass-happy WAC. Of course, Oklahoma's secondary is well-ranked too: 14th nationally in passing defense and 9th in opposing passer's efficiency. This will be the first real test of the skill of our defensive backs, but I'm sure they'll be up to the challenge. A lot of that confidence comes from Tulsa's under-powered rushing attack. Possibly another hold-over from their years playing teams like Hawaii and Fresno State. Tulsa averages a respectable 160 yards per game on the turf, but they did most of that damage against UL-Monroe's cellar-dwelling D (110th against the run, 105th against the pass, and 112th overall). On the other side of the ball, you have a defense that is giving up less than 45 yards per game. OU has a dominant and deep defensive line that is backed-up by a solid linebacker core. If we make Tulsa one-dimensional by either shutting down their run or getting on top early (both very, very likely) the Sooners will be able to lock down Tulsa's receivers with cornerbacks while keeping a safety or two over the top to pull down any errant passes. I figure we'll pull in at least three picks, one will go back for a touchdown and Tulsa's passing juggernaut will be slowed down (but not stopped). Special Teams vs. Tulsa I know you know. I see you smiling at me. Well, it's alright! It's alright! Three names, then I'm done: Iglesias, Hartley, Groza Final score: Oklahoma 51, Tulsa 14 Lyrics: P.O.D. - Boom!

News Update

• OU Basketball holds open try-outs – Well, we knew they were a little short on people after the majority of our big-name recruits bailed after Sampson-gate hit. I hope they pick up some good players, 'cuz Capel is a pretty good guy (for a Dookie).
• Women's volleyball on FSN Wednesday – It is good to see the ladies getting some attention. It seems like women's volleyball is one of the least-appreciated NCAA sports, but it's damn fun to watch. I'd suggest you give it a look and, if you enjoy it on TV, go see a few games.
• Boren opens his mouth again – He's talking about OU's chances of winning their appeal of the vacation of the eight wins from the 2005 season. Apparently he thinks it's even money. I was only slightly surprised to see that he brought up USC. You know, for a retired politician, he can be very blunt when he wants to make a point, too bad the powers-that-be are so dense.
• Bradford gets on some Heisman lists – While he's sure to get some votes come December, don't put money on him pulling off what Peterson couldn't. If he keeps up like he has been, he'll be invited to New York, though.

Slow week. At least no one was arrested.

Sunday Roll-call

In this (hopefully) weekly column, I'm going to discuss the performance of a few of the major teams from around the NCAA. Most of the time, I've watched these games, though sometimes I've seen only a few minutes. So, here we go:

• Oklahoma State — While I never really bought the marketing hype about the Pokes having the best offense in the nation this year, I did feel that they could be very, very good. What I, and everyone else, apparently forgot to think about was the fact that defensive players need to be able to tackle...at least a little. I don't think that we can chalk this up to inexperience as much as it looked like a complete lack of effort on the defensive side of the ball. Add to that an enormous number of dropped passes by some usually very good receivers (*cough* Adarius Bowman *cough*) and you end up with a lop-sided loss to possibly the best team in the Sun Belt Conference this year.
• Notre Dame — What can I say here? They absolutely sucked. Clausen was horrible, so was the rest of the offense. Their defense looked hopeless and completely over-matched. If I was a domer, it would have been painful...
• Michigan — ...fortunately, I'm not. Michigan looked like they were back in force. Their performance was definitely enhanced by the fact that Notre Dame was horrible, but I still think they may have turned it around. I'm not going to pick them to win the Big 10, though, that's going to be Penn State, but they could end the season with only 4 losses. That should redeem Lloyd Carr's name enough that he can retire with grace, especially if they end up beating Ohio State this year.
• That other school that wears orange — I have to say that I'm not sure how Mack Brown pulled this one off. For the third straight week, they had a big scare against what should have been an inferior opponent. McCoy looks to be firmly in the grasp of the Law of Averages, which bodes very poorly for short-horn fans. Their running game leaves a lot to be desired as well, though Charles did look good late as did their third-down back Ogbonnaya.
• USC — I was as unimpressed this time as I was when they blundered past Idaho. Now, I'll admit that I did not watch the whole game. I actually only saw the first and fourth quarters (so when Nebraska was playing well) and nothing of the other two. I understand from reading that they have finally decided which of their four million running backs they are going to start. Really, I think this is mostly just reaction against the media (and especially Herbstreit) practically creaming themselves every time they mention the University of Spoiled Children. They're a good football team, but these folks are gushing so much you'd think that they could hold their own against an NFL team and that the rest of the NCAA should just go ahead and forfeit the entire season and let Carrol claim another national championship they didn't earn (no, I'm not bitter, I swear). Anyway, they won, but it wasn't as impressive as LSU dominating VT last week and if I had a vote they'd probably be #4 on my ballot.
• Oklahoma — I almost feel guilty writing about this game. I didn't go and I didn't want to pay more than the cost of a ticket to get the pay-per-view. I did, however, listen to it on the radio. We won, it was impressive, Utah State was not a test. Basically the same story as the last few weeks. The only constructive things I have to say are these: 1) Bradford looks like the best choice the coaches could have made, 2) I'm glad Nichol isn't the starter and 3) damn...our defense rocks! Also, Bob Barry and Marv are probably the funniest play-by-play/color combination in all of sports radio...too bad it's not on purpose.

Well, that's the column. Give me some criticism (constructive or otherwise).